Want to run for Congress? Move to Central Florida.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010 at 10:44PM With the census about to start in earnest, I wanted to take a look at the likely winners and losers from the next reapportionment and redistricting. I am not even going to try to predict how that 2012 process will benefit the parties or individual members. Certainly as anyone who has lived through one redistricting session (I did in 2002) can attest, there is very little you can predict once pen goes to paper.
However, I do believe that by tracking the 2000 census data through the most recent census population projections from last year, there are some interesting nuggets about how the map will evolve.
The number one takeaway, assuming that Florida gains only one new Congressional seat: the new Congressional seat will likely fall somewhere between Orlando and the eastern part of the Tampa media market. And in the unlikely scenario that Florida gets two, the Tampa and Orlando media markets will likely each be the beneficiaries of one.
But that's only the beginning.
Since 2000, Florida has experienced subtle demographic shifts. For example, the 2000 census showed that just under 54% of all Floridians lived in one of the state's seven 'urban' counties, counties with a population of more than 750,000 (Broward, Dade, Duval, Hillsborough, Palm Beach, Pinellas, Orange). Today, that number is 51.7%. The shift, not surprisingly, is almost exclusively into the midsize (typically suburban/ ) counties.
Except, unlike the rest of the country, it hasn't been due to urban flight. For example, the three counties who have dropped the most in terms of their share of statewide population: Dade, Broward and Pinellas all share in common one thing: they are at or nearly at maximum density due to geographic constraints.
On the flip side, the counties that are the fastest gaining in terms of their share of statewide population: Lee (though the failed housing market there is now leading to some retreat in numbers), Orange, Osceola, St. Lucie and Lake all share a similar trait---lots of room to grow.
So what does all this mean?
In general, shockingly little all in all. Most parts of the state will see very little change in terms of their total representation, though that doesn't mean that everything will be the same.
First, the state house map will show the most obvious shifts. If counties were apportioned seats strictly based on population (which we know they are not), Dade, Broward and Pinellas would likely each lose an entire seat in the house.
On the flipside, Orlando/Osceola would gain another (and it would likely be majority Hispanic), and SW Florida would receive another, likely based in Lee County. The lost Pinellas seat would be absorbed within the media market, but would end up far further north and east, potentially even benefiting the Villages.
In total, the Miami media market would be down two, and the Orlando media market would be up two. Southwest Florida gains one, stealing some from the eastern side of the state.
In the State Senate, SE Florida will likely watch the power centers of a couple of their districts shift north and west, as Orlando and SW Florida grab bigger chunks of the map.
That being said, within media markets and even counties, there are subtle shifts that will likely lead to some interesting cartography. But in the interest of space, I'll take those on at a later date.
Agree? Disagree? As always, let me know.
Reader Comments (7)
I really like this blog post, it has some great info. Thank you and keep up good work.
trading for a living
The time for lovers is always precious and easily elapses from fingers. Since then, why not record the happy time with chic accessory. Designer couple watch is the best keepsake for lovers to memorize their happiness. However, the original high-end couple watches are all sold at hefty prices which are usually far beyond the reach of many couples.replica bvlgari watches
Declassified files from the last century show government concerns over UFOs, and reveal that Winston Churchi..
Indian News
Third, adding to the funtion of telling time. I hope it can also alter its time if we go abroad. That means it must be sensitive about the position—the longitude and latitude,and the height. That’s it! The very position! Served seeing as GPS.replica patek philippe watches
fashion Burberry bags and wallets
discount Burberry Handbags for sale online
Burberry Handbags on sale
there are burberry bags cheap
Hi-Q Burberry Scarves fashion items.
Burberry handbags,Burberry bags
Burberry,Burberry handbags
www.mylvestore.com have many handbags.
choos louis vuitton handbags louis vuitton handbags
choos LV handbags for cheap
go to buy louis vuitton bags louis vuitton handbags
looking forlouis vuitton louis vuitton handbags
about louis vuitton wallets louis vuitton wallets
and louis vuitton purses louis vuitton wallets
good things of louis vuitton wallets louis vuitton wallets
miu miu handbags
miu miu bags
miu miu bag for sale
best miu miu bags
you want to buy amiu miu handbag
Fashion Chopard Watches for sale
Cool Piaget Watches on sale
go tobuy Watches yeah!
there manyWatches for sale,your can choose best!
guess watchesguess watches
rado watchesrado watches
mens watchesmens watches
buy replica watchesbuy replica watches
------
louis vuittonlouis vuitton
louis vuitton handbagslouis vuitton handbags
louis vuitton bagslouis vuitton bags
lv handbagslv handbags
gucci handbagsgucci handbags
chanel handbagschanel handbags
louis vuitton handbagslouis vuitton handbags
wholesale louis vuittonwholesale louis vuitton
cheap louis vuittoncheap louis vuitton
replica louis vuittonreplica louis vuitton
louis vuittonlouis vuitton
pradafor sale
prada bagsfor discount
prada handbagsprada handbags
prada shoesprada shoes
Mens WatchesMens Watches
Hamilton WatchesHamilton Watches
Cheap WatchesCheap Watches
Cheap Watches for saleCheap Watches for sale
mengzhilin1008
Those two blocks can power the average high-consumption American home -- one UGG boots block can power the average European home. At least that's the claim being made by Bailey Button UGG boots K.R. Sridhar, founder of Bloom Energy, on 60 Minutes last night. The original technology comes from UGG Bailey Button Triplet boots an oxygen generator meant for a scrapped NASA Mars program that's been converted, with the help of an estimated $400 million in private funding, into UGG Classic Cardy boots a fuel cell. Bloom's design feeds oxygen into one side of a cell while fuel is supplied to the other side to UGG Bailey button boots provide the chemical reaction required for power. The cells themselves are inexpensive ceramic disks painted with Women UGG boots a secret green ink on one side and a black ink on the other. The disks are separated by Bailey button boots a cheap metal alloy, instead of more precious metals like platinum, and stacked into a cube of varying capabilities -- a stack of UGG boots sale 64 can power a small business like Starbucks.Now get this, skeptics: there are already several corporate customers using UGGs Bailey button refrigerator-sized Bloom Boxes. The corporate-sized cells cost $700,000 to $800,000 and are installed at 20 customers you've already heard of UGG Cardy boots including FedEx and Wal-mart -- Google was first to this green energy party, using its Bloom Boxes to power a data center for the last 18 months.
buy nike shoes,Save 50% to 80% and free shipping at www.shox-nike.com
<p>Online Selling nike shox, nike shox Shoes,Nike Shox OZ,Nike Shox NZ,Nike Shox R4,Nike Shox Classic Shoes,Nike Shox Experience Shoes,Nike Shox Turbo Shoes,Nike Shox Medallion EU Shoes,Paypal Accept,Free Shipping and Best Discount.</p>