For and Against Crist the NPA

Somewhere in a room, Crist and his advisors either have or still are talking about a possible run as an independent.  And while the road is rough, he is probably the only politico in Florida who would have a chance to pull it off.  He has the two things any 'maverick' candidate needs:  plenty of cash and 100% name ID. 

As I mentioned on my blog, I am convinced he is considering it, and may even really want to do it.  But I am not sure he will actually make the decision, since doing so will put him out on a very lonely limb. 

So Governor Crist, while you haven't asked me, this is my take on the subject.  Here are the pros and cons.

Why you should run as an independent:

• It is your only path.  Governor, unfortunately, you picked the worst possible year to run as a pragmatic populist Republican, and not only will Rubio beat you, but he is on pace to outspend you in the process.  If you want to be a United States Senator in 2011, you won't get there as a Republican.
• It is your chance to be yourself.  Despite your GOP bona fides, it is clear that you are not comfortable in the new GOP, and the new GOP isn't comfortable with you.  Running as an independent frees you up to choose your own path, siding with the popular and populist elements of both parties, which is where we all know you are most comfortable.
• It is your chance to be a national figure.  While you were once the rising star of the GOP, now your road to national political relevance starts and ends with winning as an independent. Unlike Jesse Ventura, a third party win in a state like Florida could send shock waves around the political world and make you a major player in the Senate on day one.  

And why you shouldn't:

• Lose and you are done.  Governor,  the voters might give you the benefit of the doubt once, but if you make this move and lose, you are done.  Plenty of politicians have lost an election and recovered, but if you run as an independent and lose, you can forget having political friends when you come home.
• The electoral math is brutal.  Governor, if you read my blog yesterday, you would see how hard the math is to win.  As soon as you make the move, you will see a lot of your money dry up and will find yourself outspent by both Rubio and Meek, and to win, you not only have to win a majority of independents, but sizable margins of both D's and R's.  Even with your universal name ID, this will be hard to pull off.
• Running as an independent reinforces what people believe about you, that you are about you.  Right or wrong, perception is reality and Sally Bradshaw is right, this is a move that many will read as proof that you are more about winning than you are about serving.  Granted, the same perception didn't kill Joe Lieberman, but then again, unlike Lieberman, you have really good candidates on both sides and Florida is a much different state than Connecticut.

Comments

[Diana]

While on the one had I agree with you Steve, on the other, I know many Dems down here who would vote for Crist over Meek.

I think Charlie doesn't stand a chance as a republican. The Tea Baggers have co-opted the party here in the South and Marco is polling pretty good.

If he vetoes the insurance and educational bill, which I think he will at least one of them, the republicans are going to skewer him.

[j]

Not gonna work. Charlies' window slammed shut about 6 weeks ago. He won't bleed off enough sane Republicans or careless Dems to have much effect other than ensuring Rubio is elected.

He SHOULD have gone to the DSCC hat in hand in January and switched parties before Meek made a meager but firm claim on this race. He could have won easily as a Dem. He will fail miserably as an independent, in fact I'll go further and say he won't even attempt it. The wackos have chosen Rubio, and Rubio it shall be, once the primary ends.

The sad thing is that Meek probably can't beat him either.

[Joy Reid]

Great analysis Steve!

One thing I'd add is that if Crist were to veto the teacher tenure bill, it would mitigate reason three "not to run NPA" because he would revive his "people's governor" cred and gain a whole new constituency of 167,000 seriously grateful teachers, plus scores of parents who have kids in public school. Opposition to SB6 jumps party lines, and Crist can afford to piss off conservatives, since they're not gonna vote for him anyway, no matter what. The passion on this bill is definitely on the "veto" side and Crist knows it:

http://blog.reidreport.com/2010/04/calls-to-crist-running-10247-71-against-anti-teacher-bill/

[steve]

Joy- I could make an argument that vetoing SB6 is a sign of independence. In doing so, he'd be telling Jeb Bush to shove it, which isn't helpful in winning a GOP primary.

Hope you are well and thanks for reading!

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