Looks like Bob Graham was right, again.
Saturday, May 22, 2010 at 7:54PM I'll admit it, I am an unabashed fan of Bob Graham. In fact, one of the great honors and joys of my 2008 Obama experience was getting to spend time with him. There are few who have ever understood this state like him, and few that ever will.
That being said, many people shook their heads when a decade or so ago, Bob Graham predicted that the state's long term demographic shifts would lead to a much better state for Democrats. The doubters weren't without good cause, a decade ago, Jeb Bush had just easily won the Governor's mansion, and Republicans were sweeping pretty much everything, at all levels of the ballot.
Fast forward. Obama wins Florida, on the back of a grassroots effort that is without comparison. Democratic voter registration advantage surges from 250,000 to over 700,000, in just a year or so. Some GOPers claimed it was a fluke, or at worst (for them), a one time boost and that Florida was still a reliably "red" state.
Fast forward again. Obama's popularity slides and all is lost for the Democrats, or at least that is the message coming out of the politarazzi. But does the data back it up?
Not exactly.
Since the close of the registration books in October 2008, 38% of all new registrants in Florida signed up as Democratic, compared to just 25% with the GOP, an advantage of some 50K voters, continuing a four year trend of growth for Florida Democrats. In fact, going back to the close of books in 2006, 42% of all new registrants signed up with the Democrats, compared to only 25% for the Republicans.
Now, I'd love to claim that guys like me have a lot to do with it, but the truth is simple demographics are working in the favor of Democrats, just as Bob Graham predicted.
If you look at voters registered before 2006, not only is the Dem to GOP margin closer (+3 Dem), but the state had a different look. Almost 72% of registered voters were white, with African American/Caribbean voters making up 12% and Hispanics making up another 10%. But since 2006, the numbers tell a different story. Of voters registered since 2006, 17% are African American/Caribbean and 18% are Hispanic (the numbers are pretty consistent from 2006-2008 and from 2008-2010).
Within these populations, the Democratic advantage is stunning. Among the 340,000 or so Hispanics who have registered since 2006, the Democratic advantage over the GOP is 44-19. Given what just happened in Arizona, there is no reason to believe this trend will change anytime soon.
Among new African American/Caribbean voters, the advantage is 81-3, Even among white voters, where the GOP held a 10 point advantage pre-2006, among new voters, the advantage is +6 (both pre-2008 and post-2008).
Dig a little deeper and you see that seven counties in Florida make up more than 51% of all new voters since the close of registration in 2006, and in those four counties, more than 4 out 10 new voters were either African American/Caribbean or Hispanic. I'll break this down a little further in a future blog post.
Add these trends to the fact that 2010 marks the first time in 140 years that every statewide office is on the ballot without an incumbent running for re-election---plus Cristpalooza, and this one is lining up to be a wild one, Florida style.
And once again, it looks like Bob Graham was right.
Reader Comments (7)
Good alt title to this blogpost:
'Why They Can't Abide Fair Districts'.
I'm with you Steve - I'm a HUGE Bob Graham fan! During the 20 months of the Obama campaign I got to meet and speak with him several times at many events and he only rose more in my eyes.
Besides being so damn smart he is such a decent down to earth guy.
I only hope we can get our newly registered voters out this fall. I hope everyone will join us on June 5th for the country wide canvassing to get all 08 voters involved.
I have admired Bob Graham for it seems like eons. He is honest, and he fights for ' we little people'. Always. Anything he says, I believe. That being said, I live in Pensacola. I am married to a retired Master Chief. I am an avowed Democrat and Obama supporter. You see my problem. I understand how the demographics are turning. White, middle-class old people will become a minority very soon. Overwhelmingly repubs. My question is why is Florida's House and Senate so totally Repub? When the people are not Repub? I actually hate living here, but my house is paid for. And I don't know anywhere else that is better. How do repubs get to screw us up so bad with no repercussions? How can they make a woman who is making the most horrendous decision of her life suffer the torture of an ultrasound and verbal description (and pay for that, btw), to make her feel one more level of despair? I hate living here.
Mmmm, love a good "awesomeness of Bob Graham"/"Dems are winning in Florida" post.
@Marilyn Brown: Agreed. Someone competent definitely needs to take over the state house and senate races for the dems at some point. There's few people I think could actually run a solid state-wide campaign to take those chambers back. It'd have to be someone who knows the state well, knows it's important, maybe even someone who isn't doing anything currently...(*stares at Schale)
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In your Democratic surge analysis you fail to mention surge in NPA registration and the quiet Tea Party effect.