Susan MacManus on Independent Voters

Florida's resident political scientist, Dr. Susan MacManus of the University of South Florida has written a column for the Sayfie Review looking at the demographics of Florida's independent voters.   It is definitely worth a read here:  Florida Swing Voters: A Closer Look at NPA Registrants and Self-ID'd Independents.

To me, the two most interesting data points in her paper are that these voters tend to be younger and more Hispanic than the population at large.  Not that this is in any way surprising, though I think it underscores two very important political trends for Florida in the future.  

First, as a society we are going away from traditional civic organizing. For example, citizens under 30 years old are less likely to join a group, go to church, or attend meetings than the same cohert of citizens in the 1970s. This societal shift by nature means a shift away from political party membership.  Therefore, it shouldn't be as a surprise MacManus finds that while 49% of all Florida voters under 50 are registered without party affiliation, 63% of all independents are under 50.   In addition, these voters are harder and harder to find, even as though they vote at similar levels to previous generations of younger voters.

Secondly, MacManus shows that while Hispanics comprise 12% of all registered voters, Florida Hispanics make up 18% of all independents. This trend is emblematic of the larger Hispanic population shifts in Florida, as the growth among Hispanic voters over the last few cycles has leaned significantly more towards non-Cuban Hispanics, who unlike their Cuban counterparts, do not have a traditional GOP lean.  In fact, if 2006 and 2008 showed anything, this growing segment is leaning more Democratic. 

Further, as MacManus shows, the percentage of self-identified independents is larger than the number of registered NPAs.   Part of this is the nature of politics, part of this is the nature of Florida, where so many in Florida have historical political affiliations that don't necessarily fit the Florida political paradigm (Gulf Coast Republicans from the midwest,  Panhandle Southern Democrats, etc.).

But one thing is for certain, we know that where these voters head will largely dictate where Florida goes in 2010 and beyond.

How we got to 43:43: Crist's inevitable return to Earth.

To me, the real story surrounding the Crist/Rubio Rasmussen poll has very little to do with Marco Rubio's rise and has everything to do with the one fundamental flaw in Crist's political career:  he's never had a  base.

Let me start by giving Rubio the credit he is due.  Politics is all about timing and opportunity.  Rubio is a politico of enormous talent, but it is hard to imagine if this was 2006 or 2008, that he would have had a similar level of success.  He is what his party is looking for now: energetic, bright and most importantly, ideologically pure.  Quite simply, he's become the leader the conservative movement was looking for.  But lets not forget that six months ago, people were writing him off for dead.  Moreover, the same poll that showed him tied shows him with very little name ID.  In other words, GOP voters are willing to give him a shot today, simply because he is not Charlie Crist.

Which is why this is really a story about the Governor.

Crist has lived a charmed political career.  He represented what was then a rock-ribbed GOP county in the State Senate (Pinellas) and earned great kudos--and a decent amount of statewide name ID, for taking on Senator Graham, even though he was trounced.  His first statewide win was against George Sheldon, legitimately one of the good guys, but who was hardly a household name, then two years later, with substantially more name ID, he beat Buddy Dyer for Attorney General in a race that had a lot more to do with the bottom falling out of the Bill McBride campaign than it did with Crist.  If McBride had gotten to 46 or 47%, Dyer may well have beaten Crist. 

Then in 2006, Crist took on a Democratic Party that was absolutely demoralized after four very bad cycles, beating Jim Davis in a race where he was largely running by himself.  Some reports show Crist outspent Davis by 4 or 5:1.  Yet in someways, that race foretold the future:  48% of Florida voters chose someone else, despite Crist's always high personal favorables.

Early in his term, Crist was viewed as untouchable.  But even when his approval ratings were at their most meteoric, his numbers were soft.  His "very favorables" never moved much beyond 10% of the electorate (compared to Jeb, who had almost all of his favorables in the very fav category). In other words, Florida voters knew they liked the guy, but they weren't sure they loved him, and when times were good, he never convinced the GOP (or anyone for that matter) to really embrace him.   So when the economy tanked, so did Crist.  Unlike Jeb, who easily survived the economic woes of 2001 and 2002, Crist had no well to go back to. 

Surely much of this can be traced to Crist's calculating style of governing.  He's done a masterful job over the years of positioning himself right where Florida voters are---more of a popularist than a populist.  But the tradewinds of this crazy state change just like the weather in the summer.  Florida looks nothing like the state of Crist's political birth, and the mood of the electorate today is very different than at anytime in his political career. 

Is Crist done? No.  In the last twenty-five or so years of FL Sen/Gov races, only Connie Mack, Bob Martinez and Mel Martinez have won on their first statewide try.  In a state where solid TV pushes 2 million a week, running statewide is a great predictor of winning statewide.  Further, Florida voters don't know Rubio yet, and rest assured, he will have to survive the media meat grinder.  Plus Crist is going to have plenty of money to communicate, and voters may begin to worry that Rubio can't win a general. The idea that we can say today that Crist can't win is downright silly.

But without a doubt, this is the biggest challenge of his political life and to overcome it, he will need to develop the one thing that has eluded him his whole career, a base.

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